PUBLIC HEALTH ASSESSMENT

INITIAL RELEASE

CALLAWAY AND SON DRUM SERVICE
LAKE ALFRED, POLK COUNTY, FLORIDA

APPENDIX A: FIGURES

Figure 1. Site Location in Florida

Figure 2. Site Location in Lake Alfred

Figure 3. Site Layout

Figure 4. Sampling Locations

APPENDIX B: TABLES

Table 1.

Maximum concentrations of organic contaminants in on-site groundwater

Contaminants of Concern (COC)	Maximum Concentration (mg/L)	Sample I.D.	# Greater Than Comparison Value/ Total # of Samples	Comparison Value*
				(mg/L)	Source
Gamma Chlordane	0.036J	TW-04	1/5	0.03 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Chlorophenol	100JN	TW-05	1/5	50 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
4, 4'- DDE	0.27N	TW-05	1/5	0.1 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
1,2-Dichloroethylene	160	CGW-02	2/17	70 (LTHA)	ATSDR 2000
3 and/or 4-Cresol	78	TW-05	1/5	4 (GWCTL)	FDEP 1999
Tetrachloroethylene	950	CGW-02	2/17	0.7 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Trichloroethylene	110	CGW-02	2/17	3 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Vinyl Chloride	33	CGW-02	2/17	0.02 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000

* Comparison values used to select chemicals for further scrutiny, not for determining the possibility of illness.
µg/L = micrograms per liter of groundwater
J - Estimated value
N - Presumptive evidence of presence of material
Ch- Indicates the standard is based on a child's exposure concentration

Table 2.

Maximum inorganic contaminant concentrations in on-site groundwater

Contaminants of Concern (COC)	Maximum Concentration (mg/L)	Well I.D.	# Greater Than Comparison Value/ Total # of Samples	Comparison Value*
				(mg/L)	Source
Aluminum	270,000	TW-05	3/8	20,000 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Arsenic	68	TW-05	2/8	0.02 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Barium	3,400	TW-05	2/8	700 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Cadmium	6.4JN	TW-05	1/8	2 (CH. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Chromium	530	TW-05	4/15	30 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Lead	740	TW-05	5/15	15 (GWCTL)	FDEP 1999
Mercury	0.92	TW-05	0/8	2 (LTHA)	ATSDR 2000
Nickel	55	TW-05	0/8	200 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Selenium	10J	TW-05	0/8	50 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Thallium	9JN	TW-05	1/8	0.5 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Vanadium	1,100	TW-05	2/5	30 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000

µg/L = micrograms per liter
* Comparison values used to select chemicals for further scrutiny, not for determining the possibility of illness.
N.A.- Not analyzed
J - Estimated value
N - Presumptive evidence of presence of material
Ch- Indicates the standard is based on a child's exposure concentration

Table 3.

Maximum concentrations of organic contaminants in on-site surface soil (0-6 inches bgs) or sediment

Contaminants of Concern (COC)	Maximum Concentration (mg/kg)	Sample I.D.	# Greater Than Comparison Value/ Total # of Samples	Comparison Value*
				(mg/kg)	Source
Gamma Chlordane	0.023	SS-03	0/10	2 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Chlorophenol	N.D.	---	0/11	300 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
4, 4'- DDE	0.017	SS-05	0/11	2 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
1,2-Dichloroethylene	N.D.	---	0/11	10,000 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
3 and/or 4-Cresol	N.D.	---	0/11	3000 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Tetrachloroethylene	N.D.	---	0/11	500 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Trichloroethylene	N.D.	---	0/11	6 (SCTL)	FDEP 1999
Vinyl Chloride	N.D.	---	0/11	0.3 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000

bgs- below ground surface
* Comparison values used to select chemicals for further scrutiny, not for determining the possibility of illness.
mg/kg = micrograms per kilogram of soil
N.D.- Not detected
Ch- Indicates the standard is based on a child's exposure concentration
Note: The one surface water sample taken from the western side of the site was contaminated with dichloroethylene (250 µg/L).

Table 4.

Maximum concentrations of inorganic contaminants in on-site surface soil (0-6 inches bgs) or sediment

Contaminants of Concern (COC)	Maximum Concentration (mg/kg)	Sample I.D.	# Greater Than Comparison Value/ Total # of Samples	Comparison Value*
				(mg/kg)	Source
Aluminum	12,000	SS-03	0/10	100,000 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Arsenic	6	SS-03	3/10	0.5 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Barium	34	SD-03	0/10	4000 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Cadmium	2.9	SD-01	0/10	10 (CH. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Chromium	1500	SS-04	1/10	200 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Lead	5,300	SS-04	1/10	400 (SCTL)	FDEP 1999
Mercury	N.D.	---	0/10	3.4 (SCTL)	FDEP 1999
Nickel	3.2J	SS-03	0/10	1000 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Selenium	0.92J	SS-03	0/10	390 (SCTL)	FDEP 1999
Thallium	N.D.	---	0/10	5 (Ch. RMEG))	ATSDR 2000
Vanadium	32	SS-03	0/10	200 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000

bgs- below ground surface
* Comparison values used to select chemicals for further scrutiny, not for determining the possibility of illness.
mg/kg = milligrams per kilogram of soil
Ch- Indicates the standard is based on a child's exposure concentration
N.D.- Not detected
J - Estimated value

Table 5.

Maximum concentrations of organic contaminants in off-site groundwater

Contaminants of Concern (COC)	Maximum Concentration (mg/L)	Sample I.D.	# Greater Than Comparison Value/ Total # of Samples	Comparison Value*
				(mg/L)	Source
Gamma Chlordane	0.13	TW-02	1/4	0.03 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Chlorophenol	N.D.	---	0/4	50 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
4, 4'- DDE	N.D.	---	0/4	0.1 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
1,2-Dichloroethylene	N.D.	---	0/11	70 (LTHA)	ATSDR 2000
3 and/or 4-Cresol	N.D.	---	0/4	4 (GWCTL)	FDEP 1999
Tetrachloroethylene	N.D.	---	0/11	0.7 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Trichloroethylene	N.D.	---	0/11	3 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Vinyl Chloride	N.D.	---	0/11	0.3 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000

* Comparison values used to select chemicals for further scrutiny, not for determining the possibility of illness.
It is important to note that two of the four samples came from private drinking wells south of the site. The first was the public supply well at Palm Shores Mobile Village and the second was the well Camp Hackedy.
µg/L = micrograms per liter of groundwater
N.D.- Not detected
N.A.- Not analyzed
Ch- Indicates the standard is based on a child's exposure concentration

Table 6.

Maximum inorganic contaminant concentrations in off-site groundwater

Contaminants of Concern (COC)	Maximum Concentration (mg/L)	Well I.D.	# Greater Than Comparison Value/ Total # of Samples	Comparison Value*
				(mg/L)	Source
Aluminum	210,000	TW-02	2/11	20,000 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Arsenic	110	TW-02	1/11	0.02 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Barium	6000	TW-02	1/11	700 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Cadmium	84JN	TW-02	2/11	2 (CH. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Chromium	340	TW-02	2/11	30 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Lead	2,200	TW-02	2/11	15 (GWCTL)	FDEP 1999
Mercury	26	TW-02	2/11	2 (LTHA)	ATSDR 2000
Nickel	390	TW-02	1/11	200 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Selenium	170J	TW-02	1/11	50 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Thallium	27JN	TW-02	1/11	0.5 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Vanadium	420	TW-02	2/4	30 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000

µg/L = micrograms per liter
* Comparison values used to select chemicals for further scrutiny, not for determining the possibility of illness.
Ch- Indicates the standard is based on a child's exposure concentration
J - Estimated value
N - Presumptive evidence of presence of material

Table 7.

Maximum concentrations of organic contaminants in surface soil (0-6 inches bgs) off-site

Contaminants of Concern (COC)	Maximum Concentration (mg/kg)	Sample I.D.	# Greater Than Comparison Value/ Total # of Samples	Comparison Value*
				(mg/kg)	Source
Gamma Chlordane	N.D.	---	0/3	2 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Chlorophenol	N.D.	---	0/3	300 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
4, 4'- DDE	N.D.	---	0/3	2 (CREG)	FDEP 1999
1,2-Dichloroethylene	N.D.	---	0/3	10,000 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
3- and 4-Cresol	N.D.	---	0/3	3000 (Ch. RMEG)	FDEP 1999
Tetrachloroethylene	N.D.	---	0/3	500 (Ch. RMEG)	FDEP 1999
Trichloroethylene	N.D.	---	0/3	6 (SCTL)	FDEP 1999
Vinyl Chloride	N.D.	---	0/3	0.3 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000

bgs- below ground surface
* Comparison values used to select chemicals for further scrutiny, not for determining the possibility of illness.
mg/kg = micrograms per kilogram of soil
N.D.- Not detected
Ch- Indicates the standard is based on a child's exposure concentration

Table 8.

Maximum concentrations of inorganic contaminants in off-site surface soil (0-6 inches bgs) or sediment

Contaminants of Concern (COC)	Maximum Concentration (mg/kg)	Sample I.D.	# Greater Than Comparison Value/ Total # of Samples	Comparison Value*
				(mg/kg)	Source
Aluminum	5,300	SS-02	0/4	100,000 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Arsenic	0.68J	SS-02	1/4	0.5 (CREG)	ATSDR 2000
Barium	63	SS-02	0/4	4000 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Cadmium	N.D.	---	0/4	10 (CH. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Chromium	5.3	SS-02	0/4	200 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Lead	15	SS-02	0/4	400 (SCTL)	FDEP 1999
Mercury	N.D.	---	0/1	3.4 (SCTL)	FDEP 1999
Nickel	25	SS-06	0/4	1000 (Ch. RMEG)	ATSDR 2000
Selenium	N.D.	---	0/4	390 (SCTL)	FDEP 1999
Thallium	N.D.	---	0/4	5 (Ch. RMEG))	ATSDR 2000
Vanadium	2.1	SS-02	0/3	200 (Ch. EMEG)	ATSDR 2000

bgs- below ground surface
* Comparison values used to select chemicals for further scrutiny, not for determining the possibility of illness.
Ch- Indicates the standard is based on a child's exposure concentration
J - Estimated value
N.D.- Not detected

Table 9.

Potential Exposure Pathways

Pathway Name	Exposure Pathway Elements					Time
	Source	Environmental Media	Point of Exposure	Route of Exposure	Exposed Population
On-site Soil/sediment Ingestion	On-site soil contamination	On-site soil/sediment	On the property	Incidental ingestion of soil/sediment	On-site residents or trespassers	Current/Future
On-site Soil Inhalation	On-site soil contamination	On-site dusts from soil	On the property	Inhalation of dusts	On-site residents or trespassers	Current/Future
Ingestion of On-site groundwater	On-site soil contamination	Groundwater	On-site wells/ Tap water	Ingestion of contaminated groundwater	On-site residents	Future
Inhalation of vapors from on-site groundwater	On-site soil contamination	Groundwater	On-site wells/ Tap water	Inhalation of vapors from contaminated water	On-site residents	Future
Off-site Soil/sediment Ingestion	Contaminated surface water in drainage ditch	Off-site soil/sediment	Drainage ditch	Incidental ingestion of soil/sediment	Off-site residents/children	Current/Future
Off-site Soil Inhalation	Contaminated surface water in drainage ditch	Off-site dusts from soil	Drainage ditch	Inhalation of dusts	Off-site residents/children	Current/Future
Ingestion of off-site groundwater	On-site soil contamination	Groundwater	Off-site wells/ Tap water	Ingestion of contaminated groundwater	Off-site residents	Current/ Future
Inhalation of vapors from off-site groundwater	Migration of on-site groundwater	Groundwater	Off-site wells/ Tap water	Inhalation of vapors from contaminated water	Off-site residents	Current/Future

Table 10.

Total Population Estimation Table

Pathway Types	Estimated Total Population in Potential Exposure Pathways*	Minimum Population*	Maximum Population*
Potential Pathways On-site	0	0	1-50
Potential Pathways Off-site	2300	0	501-2500
Total Potential On and Off-site	2300	0	501-2500
Completed Pathways On-site	0	0	0
Completed Pathways Off-site	0	0	0
Total Completed On and Off-site	0	0	0
Potential and Completed Pathways On-site	0	0	1-50
Potential and Completed Pathways Off-site	0	0	501-2500
Total Potential and Completed On and Off-site	2300	0	501-2500

Table 11.

Calculated dose of organic chemicals from residential use of on-site groundwater

Contaminant of Concern (maximum concentration)	Oral MRL (mg/kg/day)	Groundwater- Ingestion (mg/kg/day)		Groundwater- Dermal (mg/kg/day)		Inhalation MRL (mg/m3)	Groundwater- Inhalation (mg/m3)
		Child	Adult	Child	Adult		Child	Adult
Gamma-Chlordane (0.000036 mg/L)	0.0006	0.000002	0.000001	2x10-9	2x10-9	0.00002	N.S.	N.S.
Chlorophenol (0.1 mg/L)	0.005	0.007	0.003	0.0005	0.0003	N.A.	1	1
3 and/or 4-Cresol (0.078 mg/L)	0.05	0.005	0.002	0.0003	0.00009	N.A.	0.78	0.78
4,4'-DDE (0.00027 mg/L)	0.0005	0.000018	0.000008	0.0001	0.00007	N.A.	0.003	0.003
1,2-Dichloroethylene (0.16 mg/L)	0.2	0.01	0.005	0.0008	0.0006	0.9	1.6	1.6
Tetrachloroethylene (0.95 mg/L)	0.05	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.27	10	10
Trichloroethylene (0.11 mg/L)	0.2	0.007	0.003	0.0008	0.0005	0.55	1.1	1.1
Vinyl Chloride (0.033 mg/L)	0.00002	0.002	0.0009	0.00007	0.00005	0.078	0.33	0.33

These doses were calculated using Risk Assistant software and accepted values for groundwater consumption, shower inhalation exposure and dermal exposure parameters (EPA, 1991). Shaded cells indicate an estimated dose exceeding the appropriate MRL.
N.A.- Not available
N.S.- Not significant
The above doses were calculated using the following values and an average shower time of 0.2 hours:

Adult body weight- 70 kg
Adult water consumption- 2 liters/day
Adult skin surface area- 23,000cm²
Child body weight- 15 kg
Child water consumption- 1 liter/day
Child skin surface area- 7,200cm²

mg/kg/day= milligram of contaminant per kilogram body weight per day
mg/m³= milligram of contaminant per cubic meter

Table 12.

Calculated dose of metals from residential use of on-site groundwater

Contaminant of Concern (maximum concentration)	Oral MRL (mg/kg/day)	Groundwater- Ingestion (mg/kg/day)		Groundwater- Dermal (mg/kg/day)		Inhalation MRL (mg/m3)	Groundwater- Inhalation (mg/m3)
		Child	Adult	Child	Adult		Child	Adult
Aluminum (270 mg/L)	2	18	8	0.03	0.02	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Arsenic (0.068 mg/L)	0.0003	0.005	0.002	0.000007	0.000004	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Barium (3.4 mg/L)	0.07	0.2	0.1	0.0003	0.0002	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Cadmium (0.0064 mg/L)	0.0002	0.0004	0.0002	0.0000006	0.0000004	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Chromium (0.53 mg/L)	0.003	0.04	0.02	0.000006	0.000004	0.0005	N.S.	N.S.
Lead (0.74 mg/L)	N.A.	0.05	0.02	0.00007	0.00005	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Thallium (0.009 mg/L)	0.00008	0.0006	0.0003	0.000001	0.0000007	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Vanadium (1.1 mg/L)	0.003	0.07	0.03	0.0001	0.00007	0.0002	N.S.	N.S.

These doses were calculated using Risk Assistant software and accepted values for groundwater consumption, shower inhalation exposure and dermal exposure parameters (EPA, 1991). Shaded cells indicate an estimated dose exceeding the appropriate MRL.
N.A.- Not available
N.S.- Not significant
The above doses were calculated using the following values and an average shower time of 0.2 hours:

Adult body weight- 70 kg
Adult water consumption- 2 liters/day
Adult skin surface area- 23,000cm²
Child body weight- 15 kg
Child water consumption- 1 liter/day
Child skin surface area- 7,200cm²

mg/kg/day= milligram of contaminant per kilogram body weight per day
mg/m³= milligram of contaminant per cubic meter

Table 13.

Calculated dose of metals from ingestion of on-site surface soil

Contaminant of Concern (maximum concentration)	Oral MRL (mg/kg/day)	Soil/dust- Ingestion (mg/kg/day)		Soil/dust- Dermal (mg/kg/day)		Inhalation MRL (mg/m3)	Soil/dust- Inhalation (mg/m3)
		Child	Adult	Child	Adult		Child	Adult
Arsenic (6 mg/kg)	0.0003	0.00008	0.000009	N.S.	N.S.	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Chromium (1500 mg/kg)	0.003	0.02	0.002	N.S.	N.S.	0.0005	0.00008	0.00008
Lead (5300 mg/kg)	N.A.	0.07	0.008	N.S.	N.S.	N.A.	0.0003	0.0003

These doses were calculated using Risk Assistant software and accepted values for soil exposure parameters (EPA, 1991). Shaded rows indicate an estimated dose exceeding the appropriate MRL.
N.A.- Not available
N.S.- Not significant
The above doses were calculated using the following values and an average shower time of 0.2 hours:

Adult body weight- 70 kg
Adult soil ingestion- 100 mg/day
Adult skin surface area- 23,000cm²
Child body weight- 15 kg
Child soil ingestion- 200 mg/day
Child skin surface area- 7,200cm²

mg/kg/day= milligram of contaminant per kilogram body weight per day
mg/m³= milligram of contaminant per cubic meter
The estimated doses for lead are shaded because no MRL exits for lead. Therefore, all lead doses were evaluated for health effects.

Table 14.

Calculated dose of organics from residential use of off-site groundwater

Contaminant of Concern (maximum concentration)	Oral MRL (mg/kg/day)	Groundwater- Ingestion (mg/kg/day)		Groundwater- Dermal (mg/kg/day)		Inhalation MRL (mg/m3)	Groundwater- Inhalation (mg/m3)
		Child	Adult	Child	Adult		Child	Adult
Gamma-Chlordane (0.00013 mg/L)	0.0006	0.000009	0.000004	1x10-8	9x10-9	0.00002	N.S.	N.S.
Chlorophenol (N.D.)	0.005	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.A.	N.D	N.D
3 and/or 4-Cresol (N.D.)	0.05	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.A.	N.D	N.D
4,4'-DDE (N.D.)	0.34	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.A.	N.D	N.D
1,2-Dichloroethylene (N.D.)	0.2	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.D	0.9	N.D	N.D
Tetrachloroethylene (N.D.)	0.05	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.D	0.27	N.D	N.D
Trichloroethylene (N.D.)	0.2	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.D	0.55	N.D	N.D
Vinyl chloride (N.D.)	0.00002	N.D	N.D	N.D	N.D	0.078	N.D	N.D

These doses were calculated using Risk Assistant software and accepted values for groundwater consumption, shower inhalation exposure and dermal exposure parameters (EPA, 1991). Shaded rows indicate an estimated dose exceeding the appropriate MRL.
N.D.- Not detected
N.A.- Not available
N.S.- Not significant
The above doses were calculated using the following values and an average shower time of 0.2 hours:

Adult body weight- 70 kg
Adult water consumption- 2 liters/day
Adult skin surface area- 23,000cm²
Child body weight- 15 kg
Child water consumption- 1 liter/day
Child skin surface area- 7,200cm²

mg/kg/day= milligram of contaminant per kilogram body weight per day
mg/m³= milligram of contaminant per cubic meter

Table 15.

Calculated dose of metals from residential use of off-site groundwater

Contaminant of Concern (maximum concentration)	Oral MRL (mg/kg/day)	Groundwater- Ingestion (mg/kg/day)		Groundwater- Dermal (mg/kg/day)		Inhalation MRL (mg/m3)	Groundwater- Inhalation (mg/m3)
		Child	Adult	Child	Adult		Child	Adult
Aluminum (210 mg/L)	2	14	6	0.02	0.01	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Arsenic (0.11mg/L)	0.0003	0.007	0.003	0.00001	0.000007	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Barium (6.0 mg/L)	0.07	0.4	0.2	0.0006	0.0004	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Cadmium (0.084 mg/L)	0.0002	0.006	0.002	0.000008	0.000006	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Chromium (0.34 mg/L)	0.003	0.02	0.01	0.00003	0.00002	0.0005	N.S.	N.S.
Lead (2.2 mg/L)	N.A.	0.1	0.06	0.0002	0.0001	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Mercury (0.026 mg/L)	0.002	0.002	0.0007	0.000002	0.000002	0.0002	N.S.	N.S.
Nickel (0.39 mg/L)	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.00004	0.00003	0.0002	N.S.	N.S.
Selenium (0.17 mg/L)	0.005	0.01	0.005	0.00002	0.00001	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Thallium (0.027 mg/L)	0.00008	0.002	0.0008	0.00003	0.00002	N.A.	N.S.	N.S.
Vanadium (0.42 mg/L)	0.003	0.03	0.01	0.00004	0.00003	0.0002	N.S.	N.S.

These doses were calculated using Risk Assistant software and accepted values for groundwater consumption, shower inhalation exposure and dermal exposure parameters (EPA, 1991). Shaded rows indicate an estimated dose exceeding the appropriate MRL.
N.D.- Not detected
N.A.- Not available
N.S.- Not significant
The above doses were calculated using the following values and an average shower time of 0.2 hours:

Adult body weight- 70 kg
Adult water consumption- 2 liters/day
Adult skin surface area- 23,000cm²
Child body weight- 15 kg
Child water consumption- 1 liter/day
Child skin surface area- 7,200cm²

mg/kg/day= milligram of contaminant per kilogram body weight per day
mg/m³= milligram of contaminant per cubic meter

APPENDIX C: RISK OF ILLNESS, DOSE RESPONSE/THRESHOLD, ANDUNCERTAINTY IN PUBLIC HEALTH ASSESSMENTS

Risk of Illness

In this health assessment, the risk of illness is the chance that exposure to a hazardouscontaminant is associated with a harmful health effect or illness. The risk of illness isnot a measure of cause and effect; only an in-depth health study can identify a causeand effect relationship. Instead, we use the risk of illness to decide if a follow-up healthstudy is needed and to identify possible associations.

The greater the exposure to a hazardous contaminant (dose), the greater the risk ofillness. The amount of a substance required to harm a person's health (toxicity) alsodetermines the risk of illness. Exposure to a hazardous contaminant above a minimumlevel increases everyone's risk of illness. Only in unusual circumstances, however, domany people become ill.

Information from human studies provides the strongest evidence that exposure to ahazardous contaminant is related to a particular illness. Some of this evidence comesfrom doctors reporting an unusual incidence of a specific illness in exposed individuals. More formal studies compare illnesses in people with different levels of exposure. However, human information is very limited for most hazardous contaminants, andscientists must frequently depend upon data from animal studies. Hazardouscontaminants associated with harmful health effects in humans are often associatedwith harmful health effects in other animal species. There are limits, however, in onlyrelying on animal studies. For example, scientists have found some hazardouscontaminants are associated with cancer in animals, but lack evidence of a similarassociation in humans. In addition, humans and animals have differing abilities toprotect themselves against low levels of contaminants, and most animal studies testonly the possible health effects of high exposure levels. Consequently, the possibleeffects on humans of low-level exposure to hazardous contaminants are uncertainwhen information is derived solely from animal experiments.

Dose Response/Thresholds

The focus of toxicological studies in humans or animals is identification of therelationship between exposure to different doses of a specific contaminant and thechance of having a health effect from each exposure level. This dose-responserelationship provides a mathematical formula or graph that we use to estimate aperson's risk of illness. There is one important difference between the dose-responsecurves used to estimate the risk of noncancerous illnesses and those used to estimatethe risk of cancer: the existence of a threshold dose. A threshold dose is the highestexposure dose at which there is no risk of a noncancerous illness. The dose-responsecurves for noncancerous illnesses include a threshold dose that is greater than zero. Scientists include a threshold dose in these models because the human body canadjust to varying amounts of cell damage without illness. The threshold dose differs fordifferent contaminants and different exposure routes, and we estimate it frominformation gathered in human and animal studies. In contrast, the dose-responsecurves used to estimate the risk of cancer assume there is no threshold dose (or, thecancer threshold dose is zero). This assumes a single contaminant molecule may besufficient to cause a clinical case of cancer. This assumption is very conservative, andmany scientists believe a threshold dose greater than zero exists for the developmentof cancer.

Uncertainty

All risk assessments, to varying degrees, require the use of assumptions, judgements,and incomplete data. These contribute to the uncertainty of the final risk estimates. Some more important sources of uncertainty in this Public Health Assessment includeenvironmental sampling and analysis, exposure parameter estimates, use of modeleddata, and present toxicological knowledge. These uncertainties may cause risk to beoverestimated or underestimated to a different extent. Because of the uncertaintiesdescribed below, this Public Health Assessment does not represent an absoluteestimate of risk to persons exposed to chemicals at or near Callaway and Son.

Environmental chemistry analysis errors can arise from random errors in the samplingand analytical processes, resulting in either an over- or under-estimation of risk. Wecan control these errors to some extent by increasing the number of samples collectedand analyzed and by sampling the same locations over several different periods. Theabove actions tend to minimize uncertainty contributed from random sampling errors.

There are two areas of uncertainty related to exposure parameter estimates. The firstis the exposure-point concentration estimate. The second is the estimate of the totalchemical exposures. In this assessment we used maximum detected concentrations asthe exposure point concentration. We believe using the maximum measured value tobe appropriate because we cannot be certain of the peak contaminant concentrations,and we cannot statistically predict peak values. Nevertheless, this assumptionintroduces uncertainty into the risk assessment that may over- or under-estimate theactual risk of illness. When selecting parameter values to estimate exposure dose, weused default assumptions and values within the ranges recommended by the ATSDR orthe EPA. These default assumptions and values are conservative (health protective)and may contribute to the over-estimation of risk of illness. Similarly, we assumed themaximum exposure period occurred regularly for each selected pathway. Bothassumptions are likely to contribute to the over-estimation of risk of illness.

There are also data gaps and uncertainties in the design, extrapolation, andinterpretation of toxicological experimental studies. Data gaps contribute uncertaintybecause information is either not available or is addressed qualitatively. Moreover, theavailable information on the interaction among chemicals found at the site, whenpresent, is qualitative (that is, a description instead of a number) and we cannot apply amathematical formula to estimate the dose. These data gaps may tend tounderestimate the actual risk of illness. In addition, there are great uncertainties inextrapolating from high-to-low doses, and from animal-to-human populations. Extrapolating from animals to humans is uncertain because of the differences in theuptake, metabolism, distribution, and body organ susceptibility between differentspecies. Human populations are also variable because of differences in geneticconstitution, diet, home and occupational environment, activity patterns, and otherfactors. These uncertainties can result in an over- or under-estimation of risk of illness. Finally, there are great uncertainties in extrapolating from high to low doses, andcontroversy in interpreting these results. Because the models used to estimate dose-response relationships in experimental studies are conservative, they tend tooverestimate the risk. Techniques used to derive acceptable exposure levels accountfor such variables by using safety factors. Currently, there is much debate in thescientific community about how much we overestimate the actual risks and what therisk estimates really mean.

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